A little time for the kids
July 7, 2009
Intended for publication the week of June 14, 2009.
By Brian Zinchuk
The other day I hitched up the contraption meant to carry small children behind a bicycle, and, with some coaxing, got my daughter to ride her bike to the park.
There Spencer and Katrina had great fun playing with the other kids, as a few parents watched. While watching our kids get soaked in the spray park, I struck up a conversation with one of the dads.
I can’t remember what he does exactly, but it was some sort of well-site work, probably directional drilling. Inevitably, we started talking about the activity level in the patch, and I commented on the fact that things should be picking up shortly. Oil was, after all, around $72 a barrel on that day.
His response was that he would like to see it stay the same for a while. At the pace he was going over the last couple years, it was tough.
Don’t get to see the kids much? I asked.
More like didn’t want to see the kids, he said. He was too tired to spend time with them.
I expect to hear more of that in the coming months. The last year has been brutal in many ways – the frenetic pace of 2008 coupled with the total collapse of prices by early 2009 has been hard on the system and families. Thankfully, the valley was short-lived, and much of it occurred during the slow season of spring breakup, anyhow.
The Saudis said a while back that they would be happy with oil in the $75 range, right around where it is now. If the Saudis are happy, shouldn’t we all be happy?
It wasn’t that long ago I was asking the provincial minister of finance what he would do with all the money flowing in with $60 oil.
In February, I noted that governments would likely be saying, “The cupboard is bare” at some time in contract negotiations this year, followed by, “You can do a lot more with $75 oil than you can with $35 oil.”
Well, we’re at that level now. There’s pretty good indication it will climb a bit higher towards the end of the year, which is going to help this province out a fair bit.
On the drilling side, it’s nowhere near 2008’s, or even 2007’s pace, but Saskatchewan is faring better than our neighbours.
When you look at the rig counts, Saskatchewan is doing pretty well compared to Alberta and BC. As of June 12, Saskatchewan had 36 of 124 drilling rigs working, or 29 per cent. That’s not great, but look at Alberta. At the same time, they had 65 of 589 drilling rigs working – with a whopping 524 rigs down. Only 11 per cent of Alberta rigs were listed as active, likely due to poor gas prices. BC faired a little better, with 21 of 122 rigs working, or 17 per cent. Manitoba saw five of seven rigs active – pretty good for that province.
In all, Saskatchewan is pulling through. For a lot of companies, the last six months may have been tough sledding, but if they made it this far, they should probably be okay. The provincial budget won’t likely see billions in oil bounty, but it won’t be starved, either.
And the guy with his kids at the park? He’ll probably have enough time to enjoy them, and still make a buck.
Brian Zinchuk is editor of Pipeline News (www.pipelinenews.ca). He can be reached at www.zinchuk.ca
